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Balancing Inflation and Growth Part 2 of 13

Friday, September 18th, 2009

Balancing Inflation and Growth Part 2 of 13

When I finished, Alan looked down the table and said, President Fisher, was that Henry V? Yes, Mr. Chairman, I replied. I know Ive reached retirement age, said the ancient chairman. I went to high school with that guy.

Would that we could today enjoy commodity trading courses such levity from the days when SIVs, CDOs, ARS and SLARS and VRDOsor the R or the S words, as in recession and stagflation were not yet part of the polite lexicon of monetary circles. These are not the happiest of times. These are, to put it euphemistically, challenging times for central bankers. We are confronted with the twin evils of slower growth and higher inflation, while also having to fight a banging hangover that resulted from allowing financial intermediaries to party on too hard for too long.

The monetary policy and regulatory frameworks that commodity future trading system appeared to serve us so well in past decades are being stress-tested in ways that few dared imagine during that bucolic period when many were lulled into assuming things would be forever NICE, as Mervyn King so memorably put it. We know now that a Non-Inflationary Consistent Expansion is not the steady state of nature. Neither is the Great Moderation of both the economy and financial market volatility.

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